Q1 2024 Catella APAM Investment Market Commentary

Our latest market commentary has just been released. Here’s an excerpt from the report:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful” Warren Buffett

The first quarter of 2024 has been marked by volatility in investor sentiment. The period started after a Santa rally of sorts as investors bet on the retrenchment of inflation pushing risk assets higher. But come the start of the year, confidence reversed in the UK with equity markets selling off. Across the pond, the public markets continued to rally on an AI driven boom until the end of the quarter, which saw higher than forecast inflation and rising geopolitical risks threatening to impede the meteoric rise in US equities.

As we’ve forecast for several quarters, inflation is proving stickier than the market previously predicted, especially in the US. We strongly believe that the spillover effects of wages and services should not be underestimated. When it comes to rates, especially towards the longer end of the curve, geopolitical risk will be playing a part in keeping yields elevated regardless of decisions made by central banks. The developing escalation in the Middle East poses a genuine concern to the global economy. Conflict often impairs decision making, and the longer the hostility continues, the greater the risk of unintended consequences with dire ramifications…

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